Tigers are overmatched in 2024 SEC
A large enough sample size is in for LSU’s 2024 baseball team.
Simply put, the Tigers are not competitive with the Southeastern Conference’s first division. Halfway through the league schedule, LSU has a 3-12 record. Only Auburn has won fewer games through the first five weekends of conference action.
LSU is not in a place where it would qualify for the next month’s SEC tournament. In fact, LSU is two games behind Ole Miss and Missouri – the next two teams in the standings.
LSU’s first-half schedule has been referred to as very challenging. Well, that assessment is not totally accurate. The Tigers have played only two of the top six SEC teams in the RPI rankings – getting swept at No. 6 Arkansas and at No. 7 Tennessee.
LSU has not faced No. 2 Texas A&M, No. 4 Kentucky, No. 11 Georgia and No. 15 South Carolina. Of these teams, the Tigers will meet only the Aggies in the second half of the conference schedule.
Moreover, LSU has lost conference series to Florida and Mississippi State – the 11th and 12th rated teams in the SEC according to RPI. The results in the first 15 games indicate that the roster put together by coach Jay Johnson for this season is not NCAA tourney-worthy.
No college baseball analyst predicted such a drastic decline from the Tigers. In football, coach Ed Orgeron watched a 15-0 national championship squad fall off to a 5-5 SEC team one year later.
For LSU to slide from national champion to .500 in the SEC, it would have to go 12-3 the rest of the way in the conference. Understand that such a hot streak is not impossible. Tigers baseball fans fondly recall a 12-0 SEC rebound in the final month of the 2008 season.
Expectations were simply too high for this team. Just check out the nine major losses from the 2023 team. There were six every-day starters – Dylan Crews, Cade Beloso, Tre Morgan, Brayden Jobert, Gavin Dugas and Jordan Thompson. All six were program veterans.
In addition, there were three pitchers – starters Paul Skenes and Ty Floyd and primary reliever Riley Cooper. Like the six position players, each member of this trio was in at least his third season of college baseball.
Now, look at the replacements for these nine players. Only four are in their third season of college baseball – Mac Bingham, Michael Braswell, Luke Holman and Gage Jump. Notice that all four of those players were not at LSU at this time last year.
People should have expected the Tigers to drop off at the plate. LSU played 71 games last season. The Tigers have played 37 games in 2024 – about half of last year’s number. The six departed players hit 85 homers in 2023. Their replacements have hit 28 homers.
People did not expect the pitching staff’s performance to be so below average. Even Johnson has expressed surprise about the lack of effectiveness from this group of pitchers. Thatcher Hurd is a non-factor. Gavin Guidry has not been much better.
So, what should be the goals for the Tigers going down the stretch? Having a winning week would be a start. LSU plays host to UNO on Tuesday night at The Box before traveling for a series at Missouri.
Reaching the SEC tournament is a realistic goal. Winning the series against Missouri is a must. Johnson needs to be a master psychologist. Forget about analytics. Find the best players and stick with them for a few weeks. The results can be no worse.
Here are the 2023 statistics for LSU’s main departing players.
Dylan Crews -- .426 BA, 18 HR, 70 RBI
Cade Beloso -- .324 BA, 16 HR, 49 RBI
Tre Morgan -- .316 BA, 9 HR, 53 RBI
Brayden Jobert -- .301 BA, 14 HR, 49 RBI
Gavin Dugas -- .290 BA, 17 HR, 46 RBI
Jordan Thompson -- .246 BA, 11 HR, 53 RBI
Paul Skenes – 13-2, 1.69 ERA
Ty Floyd – 7-0, 4.35 ERA
Riley Cooper – 5-3, 3 saves, 4.38 ERA
Here are the 2024 statistics for the replacements for the nine aforementioned players.
Mac Bingham -- .288 BA, 8 HR, 23 RBI
Brady Neal -- .253 BA, 4 HR, 19 RBI
Jared Jones -- .288 BA, 14 HR, 34 RBI
Paxton Kling -- .217 BA, 1 HR, 16 RBI
Stephen Milam -- .313 BA, 0 HR, 18 RBI
Michael Braswell -- .291 BA, 1 HR, 18 RBI
Luke Holman – 6-2, 2.15 ERA
Gage Jump – 2-1, 4.79 ERA
Griffin Herring – 2-0, 3 saves, 2.55 ERA
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