No team has looked better than LSU the past two weeks when they easily handled Mississippi State and Auburn.
LSU is currently passing the eye test. However, the College Football Playoff Committee members may not be using the eye test as a primary evaluation. That’s where a problem surfaces for the Tigers.
During the past two seasons, every team which gained an at-large bid to the CFP won at least ten regular-season games. If that standard remains in place this season, LSU cannot afford a loss in its four November games.
LSU is one of seven Southeastern Conference games in this situation. Seven SEC teams have two defeats – Alabama, Florida, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas. Only Georgia and Kentucky have some margin of error with one loss.
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When looking at games matching these seven teams, LSU is the only one without a victory. The Tigers lost games to Kentucky and Ole Miss. That’s why LSU’s next game against Alabama is so meaningful. Victories against nine-win teams improve the body of work.
Three of these teams have a pair of victories – Florida, Ole Miss and Texas. The Gators defeated Ole Miss and Texas. The Rebels defeated LSU and Missouri. The Longhorns defeated Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Alabama, Missouri and Tennessee each have one victory. Alabama beat Kentucky. Missouri beat Florida. Tennessee beat Alabama. LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss are the teams with two losses against others in this group of seven.
Four of these seven teams have a loss to a SEC team with at least three defeats. Florida and Tennessee lost to South Carolina. Missouri lost to Mississippi State. Texas lost to Oklahoma.
Here is a breakdown of the 16 Southeastern Conference teams into four tiers heading into the ninth week of the regular season.
TIER 1
1. GEORGIA (6-1): Open date; next up – Florida at Atlanta
2. KENTUCKY (7-1): Defeated Vanderbilt 34-17; next up – Open date
3. OLE MISS (5-2): Lost to Texas 34-27; next up – Auburn at home
4. LSU (6-2): Defeated Auburn 38-17; next up – Open date
SKINNY: This fact is hard to believe. If the SEC championship game were held this Saturday, Kentucky would be the No. 1 seed. The Wildcats and Georgia are the only two teams with fewer than two conference losses. The Bulldogs could easily absorb their second league defeat this week when they face Florida. Ole Miss cannot afford a home loss to Auburn and reach the College Football Playoffs.
TIER 2
1. TENNESSEE (6-2): Lost to South Carolina 27-24; next up – Open date
2. ALABAMA (6-2): Defeated Texas A&M 31-20; next up – Open date
3. TEXAS (5-2): Defeated Ole Miss 34-27; next up – Mississippi State at home
4. FLORIDA (5-2): Open date; next up – Georgia at Atlanta
SKINNY: Texas has another must-win game against a Mississippi school this week. The Longhorns cannot lose at home to Mississippi State and be a legitimate CFP contender. Florida is the team which can make a big move up the College Football Playoff totem pole by winning this week against Georgia.
TIER 3
1. MISSOURI (5-2): Open date; next up – at Arkansas
2. OKLAHOMA (4-3): Defeated Mississippi State 23-15; next up – South Carolina at home
3. SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3): Defeated Tennessee 27-24; next up – at Oklahoma
4. AUBURN (4-3): Lost to LSU 38-17; next up – at Ole Miss
SKINNY: Missouri only has two losses, but its only head-turning victory came against Florida. The Tigers will no longer be in the CFP mix if they lose on the road at Arkansas. South Carolina will try to continue its recent improved play when it travels to Oklahoma. Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer has the team fighting for his job.
TIER 4
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-3): Lost to Oklahoma 23-15; next up – at Texas
2. TEXAS A&M (4-4): Lost to Alabama 31-20; next up – Open date
3. ARKANSAS (3-4): Open date; next up – Missouri at home
4. VANDERBILT (3-5): Lost to Kentucky 34-17; next up – Open date
SKINNY: These four teams have one remaining goal – gain bowl eligibility with six victories. It is very unlikely that either Arkansas or Vanderbilt will win three more games. At least Mississippi State and Texas A&M need only two victories. The Aggies are currently the season’s most disappointing SEC team.
