The College Football Playoff picture for Southeastern Conference teams became clearer last weekend.
Georgia is at the top of the heap after routing Ole Miss in Oxford. Only four other SEC teams have fewer than three defeats – Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Crimson Tide and the Longhorns picked up road victories against LSU and Missouri, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers hung a 28-point loss on the Wildcats. It is difficult to separate Alabama, Texas and Tennessee. The Longhorns beat the Vols, who beat the Tide. Alabama and Texas do not play each other.
The Longhorns have four victories against teams who are on track to win eight games – Ohio State, Tennessee, Missouri and Ole Miss. However, Texas has two bad results against four-loss teams – Oklahoma and Florida.
A disappointing setback against Alabama probably eliminated LSU from CFP contention. The Tigers have only one victory against a power conference team who is on pace to win eight games – Clemson, whose record now sits at 6-3 after edging Syracuse.
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Is it definite that LSU will miss the College Football Playoff for a seventh consecutive year? The Tigers have a very slim chance to be in the 12-team tournament even if they win their final three games against Texas, Tennessee and Arkansas.
Here is a breakdown of the 16 Southeastern Conference teams into four tiers heading into the 11th week of the regular season.
TIER 1
1. GEORGIA (8-1): Defeated Ole Miss 42-7; next up – Missouri at home
2. ALABAMA (7-2): Defeated LSU 31-13; next up – at Vanderbilt
3. TEXAS (7-2): Defeated Missouri 34-20; next up – at LSU
4. TENNESSEE (7-2): Defeated Tennessee 34-6; next up – at Texas A&M
SKINNY: Only Alabama should feel safe about the upcoming weekend. The Crimson Tide did lose at Vanderbilt two years ago, but Diego Pavia is not playing quarterback for the Commodores. Georgia has a tough challenge in Missouri, but the Bulldogs will be at home. Both Texas and Tennessee must win road games to avoid that critical third defeat. Their opponents – LSU and Texas A&M, respectively, are watching their seasons slide away.
TIER 2
1. KENTUCKY (7-2): Lost to Tennessee 34-6; next up – Florida at home
2. OLE MISS (6-3): Lost to Georgia 42-7; next up – at Oklahoma
3. LSU (6-3): Lost to Alabama 31-13; next up – Texas at home
4. SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3): Defeated Texas A&M 17-9; next up – at Arkansas
SKINNY: It’s bounce-back week for three teams in this group – Kentucky, Ole Miss and LSU. The Wildcats have the easiest task of the three since they will be at home against a slumping Florida team. No one knows the state of mind of the Ole Miss and LSU players who lost home games by a combined 53 points last Saturday. A CFP berth is extremely doubtful for the Rebels and the Tigers. South Carolina is as hot as any team in the SEC. Let’s see if the Gamecocks are good enough to win a road game – against Arkansas.
TIER 3
1. MISSOURI (6-3): Lost to Texas 34-20; next up – at Georgia
2. OKLAHOMA (5-4): Defeated Florida 23-7; next up – Ole Miss at home
3. FLORIDA (5-4): Lost to Oklahoma 23-7; next up – at Kentucky
4. AUBURN (5-4): Defeated Arkansas 26-23; next up – at Mississippi State
SKINNY: Missouri could bolster its slim CFP chances by winning at Georgia. Do not count on such an upset. Oklahoma, Florida and Auburn could become bowl eligible by winning this week. With new head coaches, such an accomplishment would mean something for Florida and Auburn. The Sooners fan base does not want to hear about being bowl eligibility. Coach Brent Venables needs a victory against Ole Miss to quiet the noise about his program, for the time being.
TIER 4
1. TEXAS A&M (4-5): Lost to South Carolina 17-9; next up – Tennessee at home
2. VANDERBILT (4-5): Defeated Mississippi State 25-23; next up – Alabama at home
3. MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-5): Lost to Vanderbilt 25-23; next up – Auburn at home
4. ARKANSAS (3-6): Lost to Auburn 26-23; next up – South Carolina at home
SKINNY: None of these teams has enough in them to become bowl eligible. At least, all four teams play at home this week. Mississippi State has the best opportunity of winning Saturday, but the Bulldogs are without their No. 1 quarterback. Watch for Texas A&M, which could ruin Tennessee’s playoff push with a victory.
